{"id":20583,"date":"2022-02-22T02:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-02-22T02:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/2022\/02\/22\/the-global-recovery-continues-in-2022-but-a-bumpy-road-lies-ahead-coface-barometer-q4-2021\/"},"modified":"2022-02-22T02:00:00","modified_gmt":"2022-02-22T02:00:00","slug":"the-global-recovery-continues-in-2022-but-a-bumpy-road-lies-ahead-coface-barometer-q4-2021","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/2022\/02\/22\/the-global-recovery-continues-in-2022-but-a-bumpy-road-lies-ahead-coface-barometer-q4-2021\/","title":{"rendered":"The global recovery continues in 2022, but a bumpy road lies ahead \u2013 Coface Barometer Q4 2021"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n<\/p>\n

\n

HONG KONG SAR –\u00a0Media OutReach<\/a>\u00a0– 22 February 2022 –\u00a0Two years after the onset
\nof the pandemic, the global economy continues to recover, but still faces
\nsignificant challenges. After the lull in the 3rd<\/sup> quarter of 2021,
\nOmicron has highlighted the unpredictability of the pandemic and exacerbated
\none of the main factors affecting the recovery: disruptions in supply chains.
\nThe other major risk is the lasting inflation slippage.\u00a0<\/b>In this highly uncertain environment, Coface has made few changes to its
\nrisk assessments following the waves of upgrades in previous quarters. In
\ntotal, four country risk assessments were upgraded, including Denmark, and two
\nwere downgraded. In terms of sector risks, Coface upgraded twelve assessments,
\nnotably in the paper and wood industries, where prices remain buoyant, and made
\nfive downgrades, mainly in the energy sector in Europe.<\/b><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n

Wave
\nafter wave: the economy continues to slow down but to a lesser extent<\/b><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

The
\nhealth situation has once again required the implementation of restrictions in
\nmany countries. However, although some European countries implemented partial lockdown
\nmeasures, the measures were overall much less drastic than before. The direct
\neconomic effects were therefore less significant, even if the fallout remains
\nnegative for sectors such as air transport, tourism, hotels and restaurants.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Supply chain disruptions will
\nrun the extra mile<\/b><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

After initially affecting
\nthe automotive industry, supply chain difficulties have spread to most sectors,
\nfrom manufacturing to construction. While the time of return to normality
\nremains hard to predict, it seems that the consensus of a gradual easing from
\nthe 1st<\/sup> half of 2022 is overly optimistic and that disruptions and
\nmaterial shortages are likely to continue. This has led Coface to lower its
\n2022 GDP growth forecasts for several European countries, as well as for the US
\nand China. <\/p>\n

Furthermore, although the
\nrecovery is continuing, the number of insolvencies, which is still very low for
\nthe moment in most countries, including the United States, France and Germany,
\nshould gradually rise in 2022, as it is already the case in the United Kingdom.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Inflation, a key concern for all economies in
\n2022<\/b><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

The other major risk, inflation, is becoming
\nincreasingly important, particularly as the rebound in commodity prices
\ncontinues, fuelled by short-term supply inertia and geopolitical tensions. This
\ninflation is now also being driven by the prices of manufactured goods in many
\neconomies, as companies pass on increases in production costs to consumer
\nprices.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

These high commodity prices are benefiting
\nthe usual big winners. The Gulf region is expected to post strong growth performance
\nin 2022. Norway has recorded its highest ever trade surplus thanks to buoyant
\noil and gas exports. Finally, many African countries, even those affected by
\narmed conflict or political upheaval, have still benefited from high prices for
\nenergy, minerals, timber and agricultural products.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

In the United
\nStates, inflation and supply-side issues have dampened the recovery momentum.
\nWhile GDP growth is expected to remain solid in 2022 (+3.7%), these factors
\nwill continue to weigh on activity. In the 4th<\/sup> quarter of 2021, the
\nannual inflation rate reached 7.0%, its highest level in 40 years. In response
\nto this price surge, the US Federal Reserve has become more aggressive and has
\nhinted at an imminent rate hike, triggering monetary tightening in some emerging
\ncountries.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

In
\nEurope, disruptions in supply chains, combined with strong demand, led to
\nhigher producer and energy prices. Germany has experienced the highest
\ninflation in over 30 years. The situation is somewhat mixed in the rest of the
\neuro area: inflation remains relatively moderate in France, while prices have
\nsoared in Spain. In the United Kingdom, inflation has risen to 5.4% and has led
\nthe Bank of England to become the 1st<\/sup> major central bank to raise
\nits interest rate in December 2021, before doing so a 2nd<\/sup> time in
\nearly February.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Our
\ncentral scenario remains one of near peak inflation, which will ease as energy
\nprices and supply chain bottlenecks ease in the second half of the year.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Inflation is
\nlikely to exacerbate social pressures<\/b><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

This sharp rise
\nin inflation risks exacerbates social pressures in emerging and developing
\ncountries, which had already been reinforced by the increase in inequality
\nassociated with the pandemic. In Africa, high energy & food prices, which
\nweigh heavily on households, have limited consumption to the extent that food
\ninsecurity and poverty have increased. Fiscal support, already very limited on
\nthe continent due to public debt levels, has been withdrawn and unemployment is
\nhigh in most countries. South Africa, Algeria, Angola, Mozambique, Nigeria, DRC,
\nZimbabwe, Ethiopia, Guinea and Tunisia are examples of countries experiencing
\nincreasing social pressures as a result of the crisis.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

China going
\nagainst the grain<\/b><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

China’s slowdown
\ndeepened in Q4 2021, with an annual growth rate of 4.0%, the slowest pace since
\nthe peak of the pandemic in 2020. China’s economic recovery has been affected
\nby the slowdown in the property market, the continuation of the “zero-COVID”
\nstrategy, which has weighed on household spending, weak investment growth and
\nenergy shortages. In 2021, Chinese GDP grew by 8.1%. <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Heavily affected
\nby the Delta variant in Q3 2021, the Asia-Pacific economies rebounded at the
\nend of the year. Pacific economies rebounded at the end of the year, in line
\nwith the easing of restrictions. Most of the region’s economies had returned to
\ntheir pre-crisis GDP levels by the end of 2021, with the notable exceptions of
\nJapan and Thailand. However, the continued recovery could add to inflationary
\npressures, especially if labour markets tighten. <\/p>\n

The full barometer is <\/b>available
\nhere<\/b><\/a>.<\/b><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n
Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

HONG KONG SAR –\u00a0Media OutReach\u00a0– 22 February 2022 –\u00a0Two years after the onset of the pandemic, the global economy continues to recover, but still faces significant challenges. After the lull in the 3rd quarter of 2021, Omicron has highlighted the unpredictability of the pandemic and exacerbated one of the main factors affecting the recovery: disruptions …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20584,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[60],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20583"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20583"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20583\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20584"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20583"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20583"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20583"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}