Chart 4: Retail rents in prime districts in Hong Kong<\/u><\/b><\/span><\/b><\/p>\nChart 5:
\nCommercial property and investment deals in GBA<\/u><\/b><\/p>\n
Hong Kong
\nresidential market: total S&Ps in 2021 reached a 9-year peak; <\/u><\/b>overall home prices rose by 6.5%, with an increment of around 5-10% expected
\nfor 2022<\/u><\/b><\/p>\n
The residential
\nmarket was active in 2021, with more than 6,000 monthly S&Ps for six
\nconsecutive months for the period from February to July, 2021. Despite a
\ndecline in S&P cases since August 2021, the average number stood firmly at around
\n5,000 transactions a month. Total annual transactions are expected to reach
\n74,600 units, a new high since 2012. The secondary market has been particularly
\nactive, with more than 57,000 transactions this year, another new high since
\n2012.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
Prevailing low interest rates and strong demand from
\nend-users have gradually pushed overall home prices up since the beginning of
\n2021, peaking in August and September this year, after which prices fell slightly.
\nOverall home prices are estimated to rise by around 6.5% by the end of 2021.
\nCushman & Wakefield’s home price tracker showed that prices at mass housing
\nestates, such as City One Shatin, surpassed the
\nprior peak of June 2019 in September this year, with a record high of HK$19,800
\npsf, and are now expected to slightly decline to HK$19,200 psf by the end of 2021.
\nPrices at mid-market housing estates, such as Taikoo Shing, and luxury homes,
\nsuch as Residence Bel-Air, are also approaching historical highs. Taikoo Shing
\nis within 9.3% of its prior peak of June 2019, while Residence Bel-Air is now
\njust 4.2% short of the 2019 peak.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\nCushman &
\nWakefield’s<\/b> <\/b>Director and Head of Research, Hong Kong, Keith Chan,<\/b> commented:
\n“The residential market has been active in 2021, with transaction volumes
\nreaching a 9-year high. As property prices have gradually approached their historical highs,
\ntransaction and price growth slightly slowed in 2H21. We expect that the residential
\nmarket will continue to prosper in 2022. There will likely be around 18,500
\nprivate units available in the market, with no surprise in supply anticipated. The
\nhigh base number of 2021, combined with a shrinking stock of small-value units,
\nwill likely diminish the 2022 transaction volume by around 10% y-o-y. However, an
\nimproved economic environment will likely drive a further rise in home prices. We
\nanticipate home prices to climb by around 5% to 10% next year. Luxury homes in
\nurban areas will likely benefit more.”<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
Major
\ninvestment transactions: deal count and total transactions both reach new peaks
\nsince 2019<\/u><\/b><\/p>\n
Major investment transactions in 2021 (each with a
\nconsideration of over HK$100 million) were mainly driven by local investors and
\nforeign funds. A total of 180 transactions were anticipated in 2021, more than
\ndouble that of last year. The total annual transaction volume for 2021 is now estimated
\nto reach HK$80 billion, a jump of 67% y-o-y. Industrial properties and development
\nsites were among the most well-sought after assets, each taking a share of approximately
\n30% of the total volume. The popularity of industrial properties amongst
\ninstitutional investors is due both to their relatively small consideration and
\ntheir flexibility to convert to alternative uses, such as self-storage facilities
\nor data centers. Due to the continued impact of social unrest and the COVID-19 pandemic in the past two years, demand for office and
\nretail space shrank, weakening investment demand. The office sector’s share of
\ntotal transactions dropped significantly to 15% in 2021, compared to 62% in 2020.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
Cushman & Wakefield’s <\/b>Executive
\nDirector and Head of Capital Markets, Hong Kong, Tom Ko,<\/b> pointed
\nout: “We anticipate that the total major transaction volume in 2022 will surpass
\n2021, reaching a total of 200 deals and HK$100 billion. Demand for industrial
\nbuildings in 2021 was at a historic high, and we expect this to continue in 2022.
\nInvestors worldwide have recently been drawn to emerging multi-family conversions,
\nsuch as serviced apartments and hotel properties. The aforementioned asset
\nclasses will likely benefit from the revival of tourism activities when the
\nborder gradually reopens. The proposed
\nlowered threshold for compulsory sales will likely trigger more development
\nsite transactions in 2022. To sum up, we expect industrial buildings,
\nresidential development sites, and multi-family conversions to become the three
\nkey pillars of the investment market in 2022.”<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
Grade A office market: positive absorption in
\ntwo consecutive quarters, rental decline softened<\/u><\/b><\/p>\n
The performance of the Grade A office market has
\nrecovered from its sluggish state in 1H21 for two consecutive quarters. Absorption
\nfor 4Q21 stands at 185,500 sf NFA, despite a total net absorption of negative 578,700
\nsf NFA recorded in 2021. This is also a major improvement from the negative 2.3
\nmillion sf NFA recorded in 2020. The banking and finance sector, and insurance
\nindustry, dominated new leasing transactions, with a total share of 42%. Overall
\nrents on average have fallen by 4.7% in 2021, at a much slower pace than the
\nnegative 19.3% seen in last year. The improved economic environment and
\npositive absorption performance in 2H21 have brought availability down by 80 bps
\nto 13.6% in 4Q21, compared to 14.4% in 2Q21.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
Surrender stock
\nhas been slashed from the peak of 724,000 sf NFA in 1Q21 to 367,000 sf NFA in
\n4Q21, a reduction of 49.3% from its peak.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
Cushman &
\nWakefield’s <\/b>Executive
\nDirector, Head of Office Services, Hong Kong, Keith Hemshall, <\/b>mentioned: “With the completion in
\n2022 of over 2 million sf of new grade A office space in Two Taikoo Place in
\nHong Kong East, 98 How Ming Street in Kowloon East, and Airside atop Kai Tak
\nMTR Station, we expect overall availability to increase to 16% to 17% by the
\nend of the year and accordingly, for average rents to drop by 1% to 3%. That
\nsaid, we expect that anticipated border re-opening will drive an improvement in
\nthe economy and the demand for office space will increase with an estimated net
\ntake up of 300,000 \u2013 500,000 NFA for 2022. We expect Banking & Finance,
\nInsurance and Business Centre \/ Co-working to continue to be active.”<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
Retail market: vacancy
\ndropped across the board; rental levels have bottomed out<\/u><\/b><\/p>\n
Retail sales growth
\nin the jewellery & watches and fashion & accessories sectors (Jan-Oct
\n2021) has remained the strongest in 2021, with a y-o-y increment of 29.2% and
\n22.9%, respectively. Total sales in the retail industry in 2021 rose to HK$288.9
\nbillion, a y-o-y increase of 8.5%. Retail rents in core districts have bottomed
\nout beginning from 2H21. Increased local consumption has driven recovery of
\nF&B rents in the range of 2.2% to 2.8% y-o-y from their bottom. The y-o-y vacancy
\nrates in prime districts have fallen, especially in Causeway Bay and Tsimshatsui,
\nto 7.9% (negative 520 basis points) and 13.1% (negative 480 basis points) respectively,
\nwith many new short-term leases evident. <\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
Cushman &
\nWakefield’s Executive Director, Head of Retail Services, Hong Kong, Kevin Lam, <\/b>mentioned: “With
\nHong Kong bringing the pandemic under control, the domestic economy gradually
\nrecovering, and the employment rate picking up, we anticipate an improvement in
\nthe consumer market in 2022. We believe retail rents have bottomed out and
\nvacancy will decline further. Overall high-street rents will likely recover
\nfurther in 1H22 at a range of between 2% and 5%, with Central district expecting
\nto reach to as much as 5% to 8%. The reopening of the border will help bring
\ntourists back, boosting major brands for their expansion plans next year.
\nCentral is expected to lead the recovery, followed by Tsimshatsui and Causeway
\nBay. However, a net population outflow is expected at the initial stage of the border
\nreopening, bringing short-term pressure on retail sales, and particularly
\nimpacting F&B businesses during weekends. Accordingly, the return of
\ntourists and their related consumption activities will drive recovery in the
\nlonger-term. The wellness and athleisure trends we saw driven by the pandemic are
\nexpected to continue in 2022.” <\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
GBA: Shenzhen and
\nGuangzhou still dominate, but other GBA cities will catch up in 2022<\/u><\/b><\/p>\n
Most of the commercial
\nproperty investment deals realised in the GBA in 2021 were still centred on Shenzhen
\nand Guangzhou, together taking 98% of total transactions. The annual
\ntransaction volume is expected to reach RMB60 billion, a rise of 9% y-o-y, and also
\nthe second highest by total volume in the last five years (2017\u20132021). This demonstrates
\na highly active market, despite a smaller average deal size than before. Most
\ntransactions were low in value.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
In terms of
\nproperty types, non-traditional asset classes such as industrial \/ logistics
\nand data centers continue to remain attractive. However, data center assets are
\nlimited by the available supply, and accounted for about 1% of total
\ntransactions. Meanwhile, neighbourhood malls are expected to be emerging investment
\ntargets. These three areas are expected to become the mainstream investment classes
\ninto the future.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
Cushman &
\nWakefield’s Executive Director, Capital Markets, Greater China, Queeny So, <\/b>commented: <\/b>“We
\nexpect the total GBA investment volume in 2022 will be about the same as 2021, with
\nits investment market continuing to mature. Investment opportunities are
\ngradually expanding to other cities beyond Shenzhen and Guangzhou, with further
\ninvestment activities expected. More foreign investors are now exploring investment
\ninto the region, with 49% of the total investment volume in 2021 coming from foreign
\ncapital, compared to 17% in 2020.”<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
In the GBA’s
\nresidential sector, the total number of transacted units in the first 10 months
\nof 2021 fell by approximately 5.7% compared to 2020 on a like-for-like basis, with
\nHuizhou and Dongguan dropping the most, down 32.8% and 25.5%, respectively. <\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
Cushman &
\nWakefield’s <\/b>Vice
\nPresident, Greater China, Head of Consulting, Greater China, Alva To,<\/b> concluded: “Homes in Shenzhen and
\nGuangzhou remain the most expensive amongst the mainland GBA cities, although
\nFoshan, Dongguan and Zhongshan are catching up with double-digit growth
\nincreases. Meanwhile, the residential market is likely
\nto remain stable, although concerns over future government policies remain.”<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
Please click<\/a> here to
\ndownload photos.<\/p>\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
Photo 1<\/b><\/p>\n
Photo 1
\nCaption:Spokespersons of Cushman & Wakefield announced the Hong Kong and
\nGreater Bay Area (GBA) property market 2021 review and 2022 outlook today.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n
Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"HONG KONG SAR –\u00a0Media OutReach\u00a0– 14 December 2021 –\u00a0Global real
estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield announced the Hong Kong and
Greater Bay Area (GBA) Property Market 2021 Review and 2022 Outlook today.
With the pandemic being gradually contained and a steady economic recovery in
2021, Hong Kong’s property market shows signs of recovery: –\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0
…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":19506,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[60],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19505"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19505"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19505\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19506"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19505"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19505"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19505"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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