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HONG KONG SAR – Media OutReach<\/a> – 14 July 2021 -
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HONG KONG SAR – Media OutReach – 14 July 2021 -
18 months after the start of the pandemic, access to vaccination is now the
main factor setting the pace of people’s daily lives and the global economy.
GDP growth forecasts for 2021 have been revised upwards (+5.6%), but this is
mainly the result of …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[60],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16268"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16268"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16268\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16268"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16268"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16268"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\n18 months after the start of the pandemic, access to vaccination is now the
\nmain factor setting the pace of people’s daily lives and the global economy.
\nGDP growth forecasts for 2021 have been revised upwards (+5.6%), but this is
\nmainly the result of positive surprises from the United States. These improved
\ngrowth prospects are reflected in world trade: after a 5% decline in volume
\nlast year, Coface forecasts an 11% increase for 2021.<\/b><\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\nthis context of growth in international trade, countries exporting raw
\nmaterials are benefiting from an improvement in their terms of trade. At the
\nsame time, the slow progress of vaccination campaigns in emerging countries
\nmakes it unlikely that herd immunity will be achieved in the next twelve
\nmonths. This suggests that stop-go processes will persist, and continue to
\nconstrain domestic demand in most emerging economies.<\/b><\/p>\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\nCoface notes an increase in political risk linked to the health crisis and the
\nacceleration of inflation.<\/b><\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\nEurope and North
\nAmerica in 2022: towards the end of stop-go and new infrastructure investments<\/b><\/h3>\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\nmajor health trends have accelerated<\/b> since Coface published
\nits last Barometer in April, with the vaccination process progressing faster
\nin North America and Europe than in the rest of the world<\/b>. The acceleration
\nof these vaccination campaigns, combined with the effects of mobility
\nrestrictions in the spring, led to a drop in the number of new infections in
\nthese areas. Local authorities were therefore able to reopen parts of the
\neconomy before the summer. However, two risks make the continuation of this
\npositive trend uncertain:<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n\n
\nslowdown in the rate of vaccination which, if confirmed in the coming months,
\nwill delay the achievement of herd immunity.<\/li>\n
\nthreshold for achieving herd immunity is all the higher as the virus is rapidly
\ntransmitted between people. However, the appearance of new variants that are
\nmore rapidly transmissible raises fears of possible new waves of contamination
\nin the coming months.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\nthat these two risks do not materialise, the European and North American
\neconomies should be back to near-normal functioning by the end of the summer.<\/b><\/p>\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\nchanges are to be noted in the growth forecasts. The upward revision of global growth
\nexpected in 2021 (+5.6%, +0.5 point compared to the last Coface Barometer) is
\nlargely attributable to the United States (+6.5% this year), whose economy has
\ncontinued to surprise favourably since last summer. These improved growth
\nprospects are reflected in world trade: the Coface model indicates a growth of11%
\nthis year.<\/p>\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\nthe positive side, the implementation of the infrastructure plan<\/b>
\nannounced by Joe Biden will benefit many sectors of activity if it is adopted.
\nIn Europe, the release of the stimulus funds announced in July 2020 will have a
\ndifferentiated impact on economies and will serve multiple purposes: supporting
\ndemand, accelerating recovery and promoting development in growth sectors.<\/p>\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\ncompanies, however, an increase in production costs is to be expected:<\/b>
\nin addition to a persistent shortage of certain electronic components, it also
\naffects transport costs, as well as raw material prices which are expected to
\nremain high.<\/p>\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/p>\nEmerging
\neconomies: domestic demand constrained by stop-go and inflation<\/b><\/h3>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\nthe beginning of April, the health situation has remained difficult in several
\nLatin American countries (notably Brazil and Argentina), and in India. Further
\nincreases in the number of infections have also been observed in several Asian
\ncountries (e.g. Malaysia, Thailand, Korea and Singapore), with high-frequency
\nmobility indicators pointing to lower economic activity in these areas<\/b>. The
\nnumber of people infected with the virus also increased rapidly in Africa and
\nRussia in early summer. The trend is more positive in Central and Eastern
\nEurope, the Middle East, and Turkey.<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\nthe health context, the rise in inflation<\/b> (+8.1% year-on-year in Brazil,
\na 5-year high) and the subsequent tightening of certain monetary policies<\/b>
\nare likely to limit the extent of the recovery in domestic demand<\/b>. Countries
\nwhose materials account for a large share of imports will be penalised by a
\nsignificant rise in their import prices. This is the case for China, whose
\nimports of raw materials represent more than 30% of its total purchases of
\nforeign goods. While consumer inflation remains contained in China at this
\nstage (+1.3% over one year), the sharp rise in producer prices (+9% YOY, a
\n12-year high) argues for its acceleration in the months to come.<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\nStrong increase
\nin political risk linked to accelerating inflation in the context of the health
\ncrisis<\/b><\/h3>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\nrisks have been in the news in recent months. In this context, the annual
\nupdate of the Coface Political Risk Index shows a strong rise in political risk
\nacross the world, and particularly in the emerging countries<\/b>. Indeed, figures
\nshow a deterioration in living standards and purchasing power, as well as a rise
\nin inequalities observed following the COVID-19 crisis. At this stage, these
\nconditions are not necessarily leading to popular uprisings, which remain limited
\nby people’s capacity to mobilise.<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\n2020, the social risk index rose sharply<\/b> (+5 points) to 51% at the
\nglobal level, reached its highest-ever level. Despite the numerous fiscal and
\nmonetary support measures, 140 of the 160 countries assessed saw their GDP
\ndecline last year. At the same time, the unemployment rate has increased in 145
\nof these 160 countries. The increase in this risk is more marked in high-income
\neconomies, which have a lower initial risk level. However, despite these
\ndevelopments, the countries with the highest level of social risk remain Yemen,
\nSyria, Iraq, Venezuela, Libya, Lebanon, Sudan, Iran, Algeria, and Saudi Arabia.<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\nconflict index, the second component of the Coface Political Risk Index, is
\ncalculated according to the number of conflicts, their intensity, the number of
\nvictims and their duration. In 2020, Azerbaijan and Ethiopia saw an increase in
\nthis index due to the conflicts observed on their territories. They are
\nfollowed by countries fighting terrorism or in civil war, such as the Central
\nAfrican Republic, Sudan and Mali.<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\nThe complete Barometer is available here<\/a>.<\/h3>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n
Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"