HONG KONG SAR – Media
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As outlined in the barometer, Coface<\/a> assumes that the
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Nevertheless, Coface’s global growth forecast has been revised upwards
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In addition to the United States, several other sectors of the world
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Since the beginning of 2021, the balance of surprises is tilting to the
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The expected growth gap between the eurozone and the United States is
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But this time, the reasons for the for the US growth gap are different:
Differences
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Adopted
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The aim of this strategy is to put the US economy under “high
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The eurozone is unlikely to return to its pre-crisis GDP level before
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Until
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According to the International Monetary Fund’s April 2021 forecasts, emerging
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In 2024, GDP in emerging economies will be 4% lower than it would have
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First,
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In
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On
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On
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The complete barometer is available here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n HONG KONG SAR – Media
OutReach – 6 May 2021 – More
than a year after the start of the pandemic, global economic trends are uneven
due to lingering uncertainties around the spread of COVID-19. The acceleration
of the vaccination process, as well as its effectiveness, are key to an
economic recovery. In
this context, …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14496,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[60],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14495"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14495"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14495\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14496"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14495"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14495"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eodishasamachar.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14495"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nOutReach<\/a> – 6 May 2021 – More
\nthan a year after the start of the pandemic, global economic trends are uneven
\ndue to lingering uncertainties around the spread of COVID-19. The acceleration
\nof the vaccination process, as well as its effectiveness, are key to an
\neconomic recovery. <\/b>In
\nthis context, the prospects for a return to normalcy are both uneven and
\nuncertain across sectors of activity and geography, according to the latest barometer from Coface, a
\nleading player in the credit insurance industry.<\/b><\/p>\n![](\"https:\/\/release.media-outreach.com\/release.php\/Images\/Thumb\/500x0\/148149\/Coface-APR-Q1-2021-EN.jpg#image-148149\")
<\/b><\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\neconomic recovery will gain momentum from the summer of 2021<\/b>, when a large
\nenough share of the population in the United States and Europe will be
\nvaccinated. However, there is a risk of delay in the vaccine roll-out, notably
\ndue to supply constraints for manufacturers, resulting from shortages of
\ncertain components and export restrictions.<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\nby half a point (+5.1% for 2021), thanks to stronger than expected growth in
\nthe United States.<\/b> In this more
\nfavourable macroeconomic outlook, Coface is upgrading 35 sectors of activity
\nagainst only 3 downgrades. <\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\neconomy \u2013 industry and global trade \u2013 are likely to return to their pre-crisis
\nlevel of activity by the summer. Nevertheless, other sectors are lagging
\nbehind, notably in services and especially those that involve physical contact
\nwith customers, and across the European economies. Finally, in some major
\nemerging economies, the recovery is also being held back by rising inflation,
\nwhich is forcing central banks to tighten monetary policy. <\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/p>\nUS economy goes into “high
\npressure” mode<\/b><\/h3>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\npositive side, despite the many health uncertainties. <\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\nusual, particularly in a recovery phase<\/b>.
\nThis is partly due to weaker automatic stabilizers in the US, which accelerate
\nadjustments in employment and income. <\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\nless restrictive mobility restrictions than in the eurozone, both in 2020 and
\nearly 2021, and a more rapid vaccine deployment. <\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\nin economic policy may also explain US outperformance. The US Federal Reserve
\n(Fed) has increased the size of its balance sheet. Its asset purchase program
\nrose by about 13% of GDP in 2020, compared with 9% for the European Central
\nBank (ECB). Finally, and most importantly, greater fiscal support will allow
\nthe US economy to return to its pre-crisis GDP level more quickly<\/b>.<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\nin March 2021, the new US support plan amounts to 1.9 trillion dollars
\n(USD),<\/b> and will bring the total fiscal response to the crisis to an amount
\nequivalent to 27% of US GDP, more than any other mature economy. Coface expects that the public deficit could be up to 56\u00a0billion
\ndollars higher than it would have been without the stimulus package<\/b>.<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\npressure”<\/b>, i.e. to implement expansionary
\nmonetary and fiscal policies that encourage a return to work for the least
\nemployable people <\/b>(long-term unemployed or inactive due to discouragement,
\nlow-skilled people and categories of the population suffering from
\ndiscrimination in hiring).<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/p>\nEurozone:
\ncorporate insolvencies remain hidden<\/b><\/h3>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\n2022<\/b>. If the main mobility restrictions are lifted by the
\nend of the summer, this will go hand in hand with a gradual halt to business
\nsupport measures, which could cause unemployment to rise. In addition, the
\nincrease in corporate debt \u2013 made possible by government-guaranteed loans \u2013 is
\nlikely to limit their investment capacity.<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\nnow, the main government support measures implemented in 2020 have not yet been
\nwithdrawn. Despite the stabilizing effect of government aid, the financial
\nhealth of companies has deteriorated significantly in 2020,<\/b> which should
\nnormally lead to an increase in insolvencies. According to Coface, insolvencies
\nin 2020 should have increased by 19% in Spain, 7% in Italy and 6% in France and
\nGermany. Coface estimates the number of hidden insolvencies at 44% of those
\nrecorded in France in 2019, 39% for Italy, 34% for Spain and 21% for Germany.<\/b><\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/p>\nEmerging
\neconomies: rising inflation forces central banks to tighten monetary policy<\/b><\/h3>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\neconomies will be more permanently affected by the current crisis than mature
\neconomies<\/b>.<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\nbeen had it not been for the COVID crisis. For mature economies, the gap would
\nbe only 1% (compared to 10% following the global financial crisis). There are
\nseveral reasons for this expected lag between the recovery of mature and
\nemerging economies.<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\nthe vaccination process is more advanced in mature countries<\/b>, even if
\nsome emerging economies are well on track, such as the United Arab Emirates,
\nChile and, to a lesser extent, Turkey and Morocco, where at least 10% of the
\npopulation had been fully vaccinated by April 8. But apart from these few
\ncases, the fact that the United States and Europe have acquired the majority
\nof vaccinations means fewer doses for other countries.<\/b> Among the four main
\nvaccine-producing areas (China, the United States, Western Europe and India),
\nthe temptation to implement protectionist measures is increasingly strong. For
\nexample, India has already announced a temporary halt to the export of vaccines
\nto prioritize vaccine deployment in India, where the number of cases has risen
\nsignificantly since the beginning of March.<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\naddition to these uncertainties, many emerging economies are doubly hit by
\ntheir exposure to economic sectors hardest hit by the crisis<\/b> (tourism and
\ntransport in particular). <\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\nthe positive side, however, the rise in the price of oil and agricultural
\ncommodities is good news for economies that suffered from the opposite trend
\nlast year. In addition, the positive outlook for US consumption should fuel
\nstrong export volumes, especially among consumer goods producers.<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\nthe other hand, the widening of the US budget deficit is encouraging capital
\noutflows from emerging markets<\/b>, as upward revisions of the US GDP growth
\noutlook push up long-term US interest rates, narrowing the gap with its
\nemerging market counterparts, and making the latter less attractive to
\nfinancial investors. This has resulted in a depreciation of emerging
\ncurrencies, notably in Turkey and Brazil.<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
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